A couple years ago, it was clear a Gold Rush mentality was
brewing as the iPhone proved that people really, really wanted mobile
apps. Lots of developers jumped in to claim their fortune, as did many
students and regular folks lured by the promise of easy money through
cookie-cutter apps created for them by forms-based websites. The Gold
Rush fever has cooled, but not the desire for mobile apps, nor have the opportunities for real developers to make real money from mobile.
Forrester
Research estimates that $17.5 billion worth of mobile apps will be sold
this year across all platforms. Subtracting the cut that Apple, Google,
and others get for placement in their app stores, that's at least $13
billion for developers to pocket. But how to ensure you get the biggest
slice of the pie? Ilya Laurs, founder of the app store GetJar, believes
he knows the answer to that key question, based on analyzing the sales
and revenues of thousands of mobile apps.
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Laurs
presented his analysis recently at the CIO Global Forum, an
invitation-only, off-the-record thought leadership event for CIOs. And
he's agreed to share it with you. Before I get into the details, note
that the vast majority of apps analyzed are consumer apps, so sales
through an enterprise app store, such as the one Apple provides for
employee app distribution, may not fit these patterns. Also, Laurs could
not analyze Apple App Store sales data, but believes from anecdotal
evidence that the basic model for making money "generally holds true"
for iOS apps as it is for apps on other platforms.
Laurs'
analysis boils down to what he calls the user engagement model. In a
nutshell, it means what you charge for an app should be based largely on
how users engage with it.
For
example, if people use your apps just a few times, an ad-supported
model makes no sense, as you'll earn just pennies per user. Better to
charge 99 cents or $3.99 or whatever up front. Even though sales at the
paid price will be a fraction of the free, ad-supported version, the
total revenues are likely to be larger.
Conversely, if
the user engagement is expected to be high, such as for a news, sports
scores, social feeds, or other information-stream-oriented app, the
advertising model makes much more sense. You'll make more money from the
many more impressions -- sales-speak for the ads actually presented to
app users -- over the app's lifetime even at a few cents per impression
than if you charged a one-time up-front fee. Just beware, Laurs notes,
that it's often difficult to get paid by the ad networks.
Which
begs the question: What about high-engagement apps that aren't about
information streams, where ads would be a turnoff? I'm talking games
such as Angry Birds Space and Draw Something.
The secret there, Laurs says, is to combine a relatively low up-front
price (perhaps 99 cents to $4.99) with app purchases for virtual goods
(such as powers and hints in games) and additional functions (such as
bookmarking of your favorite teams for a sports app or ad removal to
convert a free trial app to a paid one). Another advantage of in-app
purchases is that billing is usually easy, either through the app
store's own system or through an established provider such as PayPal
that users likely already have a relationship with.
Then
there are highly useful apps that don't really support the notion of an
in-app purchase or advertising. Those should cost more because they are
more valuable. Examples in the iOS world are Quickoffice, iPhoto, Keynote, and GoodReader.

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